Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 7.669948 8.832133 10.087126 11.540098 13.172855 14.947816 17.020172
2025-12-28 6.139850 7.745148 9.615816 11.944339 14.751643 18.012844 22.072847
2026-01-04 5.291882 7.081924 9.272337 12.126406 15.720770 20.068927 25.695258
2026-01-11 4.527493 6.398845 8.793598 12.045699 16.304194 21.643489 28.789592
2026-01-18 3.928947 5.828813 8.357988 11.918835 16.741180 22.975147 31.560671
2026-01-25 3.488026 5.410640 8.064112 11.923897 17.311030 24.466774 34.573210
2026-02-01 3.152063 5.095181 7.867292 12.021234 17.978771 26.086881 37.797815
2026-02-08 2.817343 4.740609 7.573847 11.942218 18.371685 27.325510 40.533043
2026-02-15 2.522719 4.412506 7.283458 11.831796 18.691949 28.453768 43.138615
2026-02-22 2.310832 4.190450 7.128591 11.901063 19.261906 29.943125 46.298258
2026-03-01 2.181951 4.088855 7.147644 12.228883 20.223936 32.028803 50.389778
2026-03-08 1.961393 3.809411 6.857884 12.045830 20.384878 32.927320 52.761602
2026-03-15 1.693489 3.423178 6.366544 11.510823 19.975179 32.964726 53.878128
2026-03-22 1.606456 3.352348 6.397417 11.832221 20.939568 35.136243 58.313080
2026-03-29 1.509541 3.252051 6.366676 12.042110 21.725210 37.052291 62.415954
2026-04-05 1.375814 3.067137 6.170574 11.951577 22.003856 38.173455 65.313599
2026-04-12 1.251504 2.886822 5.966527 11.829197 22.214851 39.184829 68.063296
2026-04-19 1.156316 2.754797 5.839752 11.832946 22.635217 40.544334 71.410715
2026-04-26 1.081442 2.656795 5.768411 11.930090 23.217509 42.186178 75.266829
2026-05-03 0.992768 2.519433 5.609294 11.851438 23.480668 43.299878 78.287427
2026-05-10 0.909009 2.383361 5.440945 11.741807 23.677687 44.302333 81.149285
2026-05-17 0.850933 2.298793 5.368909 11.810593 24.198116 45.870438 85.005599
2026-05-24 0.821791 2.278405 5.426941 12.136244 25.205506 48.313756 90.423180